فوركس ساتو

 Trading Strategies That Work
Standard deviation is a number that indicates how much on average each of the
values in the distribution deviates from the mean (or center) of the distribution.
Bollinger Bands, created by John Bollinger in the 1960s, is an indicator that uses
this statistical measure to determine support and resistance levels. This indicator
consists of three lines and is very simple to derive; the middle line is a simple
moving average of the underlying price data and the two outside bands are
equal to the moving average plus or minus one standard deviation. Based on
theory, two standard deviations equates to a 95 percent confidence level. In
other words, 95 percent of the time the values used in our sampling fell within
two standard deviations of the average. Initially, Bollinger Bands were used to
determine the boundaries of market movements. If a market moved to the
upper band or lower band, then there was a good chance that the market would
move back to its average. We have carried out numerous tests on this hypothesis
and seemed to always come back with failure. Instead of using the upper
band as a resistance point, we discovered, as others have, that it worked much
better as a breakout indicator. The same goes for the lower band. ..forex sato The Bollinger
Bandit uses one standard deviation above the 50-day moving average as a potential
long entry and one standard deviation below the 50-day moving average as
a potential short entry. This system is a first cousin of King Keltner. They are
similar in that they are longer-term channel breakout systems. However, this is
where the similarities end. Instead of simply liquidating a position when the
market moved back to the moving average, we concocted a little twist to this exit
technique. From observing the trades on the King Keltner, we discovered that
we gave back a good portion of the larger profits waiting to exit the market at
the moving average. So, for the Bollinger Bandit, we incorporated a more
aggressive trailing stop mechanism. When a position is initiated, the protective
stop is set at the 50-day moving average. Every day that we are in a position,
we decrement the number of days for our moving average calculation by one.
The longer that we are in a trade, the easier it is to exit the market with a profit.
We keep decrementing the number of days in our moving average calculation
until we reach ten. From that point on, we do not decrement. There is one
more element to our exit technique: the moving average must be below the
upper band if we are long and above the lower band if we are short. We added
this element to prevent the system from going back into the same trade that we
just liquidated. If we hadn’t used this additional condition and we were long and
the moving average was above the upper band, the long entry criteria would still
be set up and a long trade would be initiated.forex sato
Previously, we stated that the upper band and lower band were potential
buy/sell entries. Potential is the key word. One more test must be passed
before we initiate a position; the close of today must be greater than the close
of 30 days ago for a long position and the close of today must be less than the
Trading Strategies That Work