فوركس ساتو

FIBONACCI VARIATION 1
This variation explains the “Surfing” approach to jumping in on an
extension (similar to how most Fib traders would enter).
Normally, a standard Fib trader would place an entry order at the
62% level, a stop at the 100% retracement, and a limit a little before
the expected extension. You could certainly do this. The risk to
reward ratio for doing this is pretty good, however you would often
be looking at somewhat larger stops of say 50 to 100 pips,
depending on the size of your swing.
What you are looking for are times when the market has shown
signs of having bounced the 62% level, and is now moving in the
direction of your extension. It is ESPECIALLY favorable when you
have other technical reasons why it should have turned around at
that point to start moving for your extension. A common thing to
look for (one that I have witnessed countless times over the past
years) is when your 62% retracement converges with (meaning
coincides with) your trend line (drawn on hourly charts over the past
few weeks). You may also notice whatever favorite indicator you
use converges in such a way too, but my personal favorite is when it
hits the trend line.
You won’t see this set up everyday, or even every week (some
weeks trend, some weeks consolidate), but when you do spot it then
you know you could possibly catch a HUGE amount of pips (50 to
500) using your tiny stop (of say 20 pips).
FOREX Surfing Draft .forex sato
So what do you do? When the market has shown signs that it started
to move back in the direction of the extension then you look for a
suitable wave to jump in on.
What’s next? Well, what you do now depends on your profit
objectives. You could simply go for say 20 or 30 pips to exit with a
nice tidy profit. Or you can watch how it goes for a while. If it has
gone up enough to seem “safe” that it’s unlikely to go back then
simply set your stop for a conservative 10 pips profit (so if it does
fall back you get stopped for a profit rather than a loss – better to
leave with something rather than a loss) and set your limit for a bit
before the projected extension level. Talk about a huge risk to
reward ration (huge reward)! If you are even bolder, and you see
that the markets are trending nicely then you may want to do a
trailing stop to see how far you can ride this wave (trail at last
significant lows/highs, usually close to your trend line). Going this
route you could catch hundreds of pips before your trend snaps.
What could go wrong? Well there are a few things that can go
wrong, and I’ll explain them here.forex sato
First of all, as all Fib traders know, the worst case scenario is that
the prices will continue to drop below the 100% retracement level
(complete market turn around), and so no matter what Fib strategy
you were using you’d be stopped out for a loss. The nice thing in
this situation using the “Surfing” approach as opposed to the
standard Fib approach is that you’ve only lost around 20 pips
whereas the regular Fib traders lost a whole bunch more.
The most aggravating situation that could go wrong for you is that
the markets may briefly turn around to retest the 62% retracement
meaning that you’ll likely be stopped out, and then shortly thereafter
the market returns in your direction. Oh well, bummer, you could
try to catch another wave.forex sato
The other thing that could go wrong may actually turn out to be a
blessing for you. Sometimes the market will retrace to the 79%
level. Sometimes it will bypass the 62% altogether (not giving you
a chance to enter around there), and so you could get in around the
79% level as described above for the 62% level (this would be a
good thing). The “bad” part is that if you got in after a 62% bounce
you would get stopped out as it goes down to 79%. At this point
FOREX Surfing Draft .forex sato
you try again at the 79% level. In the end, assuming that it
ultimately does a nice extension for you, you’ll make more than a
standard Fib trader who got in at 62%.